Just as China brokered peace between Iran and Saudi Arabia, the country appears to be doing same between Iran and Pakistan. The just concluded visit of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi to Pakistan months after hostilities peaked between two neighbouring countries has people asking questions. There are many a good reasons for China in making this attempt.
Pakistan has wrecked its economy and the kind of situation that it faces domestically and in the neighbourhood, does not raise any hope. While the US blessings has enabled Pakistan to gain IMF loan programme, China wont want the Army ruled country to get too close to America.
Coz then there might be occasion when Pakistan might be ‘used’ to strike against Iran or even some of the Chinese interests in the region. Thus as the Iran Pakistan tension peaked this year itself in January when the two countries struck inside each other’s territory, the Iranian top diplomat Amir Abdollahian soon made a visit to Islamabad to mend ties, apparently at the Chinese insistence.
Soon enough the talks were revived on Iran Pakistan gas pipeline where US too was forced to react and stated publicly that the project is going nowhere.
China, keen to expand its own sphere of influence in West Asia to keep US tied down there, hopes to somehow create trade relationship between the two neighboring Islamic countries so that Pakistan can stabilize. But the larger game is the BRICS multilateral grouping. Pakistan has applied for membership and Iran has got admitted only this year. While a wrecked economy like Pakistan doesn’t stand chance entering the grouping, the Iran Pakistan trade, especially on gas and crude oil could go a long way in making the case for Pakistan’s membership into BRICS despite India’s objections.
India, even though neutral and multi-aligned, is seen to be more close and responsive to Israel and America to build its military and business muscle to be able to take on a highly aggressive and irresponsible China.
Whats in it for Iran?
For one, Iran is way too much invested in its West to take on Israel and would not like Pakistan playing into the hands of Americans or Israelis for monetary help. This is perhaps the biggest fear of the Iranians in its immediate neighbourhood. If any relationship with Pakistan also brings about oil and gas trade, that makes the deal all the more sweet.
Whats in it for China ??
The country would want its influence rising in resource rich West Asia. But it is Pakistan and growth of its middle class that is of use to China. Against an India that is rising up fast and could soon acquire leadership position in Asia. The only way China can have overwhelming and long lasting influence over Pakistan is for the middle class to watch more and more online content from the Communist country.
Whats the catch ?
While Pakistan may play along to the initiatives of China and Iran, the country’s ruling class and the youth of today is way too much influenced by Indian or American life. The ruling class of Pakistan takes the first flight out of country westwards when they are not in power. Pakistanis love to visit messy London but they dont think much about Chinese Xinjiang, such is the disconnect. The love between China and Pakistan is because of India and nothing else.
The India way
Even if Iran currently might feel that India is not responding to calls for oil and gas trade and there is too much love for Israel in the South Asian country, the fact that India is part of BRICS and SCO with Iran and is looking to dedollarize just as quickly when it comes to international trade, shows that India Iran can go along in times to come. There is also the fact that Iran needs to diversify away from China.Iran needs to connect India and Russia to become a major player in the region. The fact that both India and Iran have come together to stabilize Afghanistan and are helping Armenia defend itself shows that the relationship is vital in so many ways.