Whats happening to a country as large and as powerful as Russia is scary and the global south countries need to band together or else it will be them on the target later.
First of all while the world hopes and prays that Ukraine conflict ends right this hour, it has to be acknowledged that Russia should not have been forced to accept either of two options, live under shadow of NATO forces and weaponry right across the border or act to prevent it.
While the conflict did break out, there has thus far been no sincere efforts to douse this raging fire and all we ever hear is how to ensure more weapons supplies, more recruitment of young men.Thus it needs to be asked whose interests are being served with this conflict continuing assuming the West is only there in the supportive role.
There is nothing more to be said about the relevance of United Nations Security Council which refuses to reform but even the global opinion against the conflict in a world connected with internet has not made any difference.The pain and suffering of the global south has not forced anyone to take remedial measures in the West. Russia however recently dispatched wheat to six African countries.
If one were to understand the situation first of all, a big and relevant country like Russia was elbowed out from the global mainstream with no thought to what will happen to the millions of its citizens. Russians have been big contributors to science, technology, nuclear and space achievements of humanity but they have also been big promoters of arts, culture and family values. That lot is suddenly forced to look for survival to see the next day. In itself, this is scary.
Perhaps the expectation was that people, desperate of misery, will hit the road and agitate against the government. But then the Russian media outlets and their narrative were blocked out. NATO forces have now begun exercising in Europe after building up the narrative of an aggressive Russia right on their borders.
It has to be understood that while the 90s was unipolar world order, the eventual rise of China made sure that it is soon going to be a bipolar system. But then the manner in which many countries emerged as middle powers and were not siding with any one of the major powers made the West nervous about why that is.
Thus the earlier expectation from the Ukraine conflict was that while it would prove to be another Afghanistan for Moscow and weaken Russia, the rest of the world can simultaneously be convinced that Russia is no more than a vassal state to China. Buying this narrative would automatically make the rest of the world part of NATO plus.
In the initial years just after the conflict began, the narrative was forcefully pushed in countries like India that Russia would no longer be useful as a reliable weapons supplier and so New Delhi must begin massive purchases of American or Western weaponry to counter Chinese threat.
The Modi government obviously did not play ball and infact continued having best of relations with Russia while maintaining all along that this is ‘not an era for war’.
While many in the global south hope to go to sleep saying that this is essentially politics between Russia and NATO, there is another aspect that now needs to be debated. There is a definite rise of the far right politics in America and Europe.
The politics is fueled by anti-migrant sentiments and the fact that while the birth rate of the locals in these countries is not picking up, the so called ‘outsiders’ are rising in number fast. Nothing can be done immediately to change this scenario.
Thus, the other aspect of the Ukraine conflict could be to make sure Russia weakens to a point where its citizens are desperate for a job or an opportunity in NATO land while the Western companies would wade into Russia for big business.
If this can be achieved, the obvious next step would be accept people from Ukraine, Belarus and Russia as workers or cheap labour in the West and ensure penetration of Western companies into these territories.
Skilled manpower from global south countries including India would no longer then be needed to serve in the West. This would pretty much leave the global south out in the cold. Whats more, they would then lose access to affordable Russian technology also.
The terror attack carried out in Moscow appears aimed at throwing the people off balance once more. It must have been difficult for them to suddenly find that all of the Western companies who claimed to be integral part of their lives have left so abruptly as Ukraine conflict began. But the Russians did manage to fill the void here and there and carry on with their lives. The terror attack on a concert hall or in a commercial space of the capital city gives clear message to the people that life cannot be normal, that they should always be prepared for the worst. The terror act appears aimed at discouraging investments into the country which would then make life difficult for the people in Russia.
While the Russian leadership would deal with these challenges, the possibility that developed economies may be looking for cheap labour force from Russia, Ukraine and Belarus to be able to block recruitment from global south countries should be debated comprehensively. Coz in that situation, global south would also lose access to Russia altogether.