When was the last time one ever heard of ‘prosperity’ and ‘Pakistan’ being used in the same sentence? Well the South Asian nation owned by its Army and endowed with a big begging bowl has recently been called upon by none less than top most diplomat of United States of America.
Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken spoke with Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar. Secretary Blinken reaffirmed our commitment to a robust partnership between the United States and Pakistan that advances the prosperity of both nations, as per the US State Department readout.
It is interesting that Blinken suddenly finds the phone number of Pakistani counterpart and decides to make a call.Pakistan and Iran have accused each other of harboring terrorism and have carried out military strikes in each other’s territory. It is also to be recalled that Iran has been pressing Pakistan for laying down a gas pipeline and operationalizing it as per agreement or else be ready for pay fines to the tune of billions.
Pakistan, already heavy under debt, is so much in pain that it is willing to begin trade with archrival India without mention of Kashmir, at least for now.
When it comes to America, it has reasons to be upset about Iran, which has joined in SCO and BRICS multilateral forums alongside Russia, India and China. Iran is a huge oil supplier to China and could very well become a big supplier to close partner India in near future. Not only that, Iran is also crucial to connectivity between India and Russia or whole of central Asia via the Chabahar port.
This must be scary for the Western block nations who would feel the need to derail some of these efforts. The US official reaction to possible Iran Pakistan gas pipeline is out in the public domain already.
So now that Pakistan is in deep financial trouble and under terror attack from multiple fronts, US could rescue it on the condition of gaining access to some of the Pakistani military bases. This would help US win back a key China ally to its own side, halt China led CPEC connectivity project, and be able to monitor Iran, Afghanistan and India at the same time.
Because India is not letting go of its strategic autonomy and continues to have best of relations with Russia, US sees hope in the fact that the money saved via the export of Russian oil from India is being invested into buying of American civil and military platforms. There is also the case of a very successful Indian diaspora in US who have both the money and votes. Thus idea of action against India gets thrown out of the window.
So then the use of Pakistani military bases to launch an offensive against Iran could solve a lot of issues for the Western block. There is also the angle of India-Iran jointly helping Armenia defend itself against the trilateral grouping of Azerbaijan, Turkiye and Pakistan. So the question to be asked is if Azerbaijan and Turkiye would be too averse to the idea of American air strikes inside Iran?.What would the two countries advise Pakistan should such a proposal be moved from West ?
Well, there is another aspect to be considered. After conflict in Ukraine began, it came as a shock to the world community. For days and weeks, people from around the world listened to European television commentaries that it is for the first time since WW2 that white skinned and blue eyed people are having to flee homes and seek refuge elsewhere.
This was shocking to Europeans but also to the rest of world. But then people got on with their lives eventually. Then came the Israel Hamas conflict. The thing is now people anywhere in the world are hardly talking about Ukraine conflict. So then the obvious conclusion is that if war starts someplace else in this crucial US election year, it would divert attention of the masses bigtime.
The only drawback is how would China react to all of this. For China, Pakistan and Iran are key allies. Losing both of them at the same time to Americans while a big neighbour India continues to feel grudgy towards them because of 2020 border buildup is not something China is prepared to deal with. China has domestic problems and is increasingly getting isolated on the world stage.
If China feels cornered, it could mend ties with India and bring in Russia to help with the situation. What it would mean is that Russia India China (RIC) format might get revived.